The Distribution of Gains from Access to Stocks

Recent market developments raise doubts regarding further spread of household stock market participation. We study, computationally and econometrically, net gains from access to stocks, and estimate the potentially changing role of their determinants across the distribution of such gains for US households. We highlight conflicting influences on net gains using a computational portfolio model, and use empirical estimates to derive differences in characteristics of potential entrants relative to marginal investors by the end of the dramatic recent expansion in the stockholder base. Findings suggest that downturns can have significant effects around the participation margin, through their influence on incomes, wealth, and employment. The role of education is found more limited than typically estimated, and confined to the low end of the gains distribution. Estimated characteristics of potential entrants relative to marginal stockholders suggest that further growth in participation poses considerable challenges, in view of more limited finances, younger age, more limited education and financial alertness, and above all significantly less self-declared willingness to assume financial risk by potential stockholders compared to marginal investors. The hurdle to financial practitioners interested in expanding the stockolder base is not estimated to be small.Portfolio choice, stock market participation, binary quantile regression

Portfolio inertia and stock market fluctuations

Several recent studies have addressed household participation in the stock market, but relatively few have focused on household stock trading behavior. Household trading is important for the stock market, as households own more than 40% of the NYSE capitalization directly and can also influence trading patterns of institutional investors by adjusting their indirect stock holdings. Existing studies based on administrative data offer conflicting results. Discount brokerage data show excessive trading to the detriment of stockholders, while data on retirement accounts indicate extreme inactivity. This paper uses data representative of the population to document the extent of household portfolio inertia and to link it to household characteristics and to stock market movements. We document considerable portfolio inertia, as regards both changing stockholding participation status and trading stocks, and find that specific household characteristics contribute to the tendency to exhibit such inertia. Although our findings suggest some dependence of trading directly-held equity through brokerage accounts on the performance of the stock market index, they do not indicate that the recent expansion in the stockholder base and the experience of the stock market downswing have significantly altered the overall propensity of households to trade in stocks or to switch participation status in a way that could contribute to stock market instability. JEL Classification: G110, E21

Equity culture and the distribution of wealth

Wider participation in stockholding is often presumed to reduce wealth inequality. We measure and decompose changes in US wealth inequality between 1989 and 2001, a period of considerable spread of equity culture. Inequality in equity wealth is found to be important for net wealth inequality, despite equity's limited share. Our findings show that reduced wealth inequality is not a necessary outcome of the spread of equity culture. We estimate contributions of stockholder characteristics to levels and inequality in equity holdings, and we distinguish changes in configuration of the stockholder pool from changes in the influence of given characteristics. Our estimates imply that both the 1989 and the 2001 stockholder pools would have produced higher equity holdings in 1998 than were actually observed for 1998 stockholders. This arises from differences both in optimal holdings and in financial attitudes and practices, suggesting a dilution effect of the boom followed by a cleansing effect of the downturn. Cumulative gains and losses in stockholding are shown to be significantly influenced by length of household investment horizon and portfolio breadth but, controlling for those, use of professional advice is either insignificant or counterproductive. JEL Classification: E21, G1

Equity Culture and the Distribution of Wealth

Wider participation in stockholding is often presumed to reduce wealth inequality. We measure and decompose changes in US wealth inequality between 1989 and 2001, a period of considerable spread of equity culture. Inequality in equity wealth is found to be important for net wealth inequality, despite equity's limited share. Our findings show that reduced wealth inequality is not a necessary outcome of the spread of equity culture. We estimate contributions of stockholder characteristics to levels and inequality in equity holdings, and we distinguish changes in configuration of the stockholder pool from changes in the influence of given characteristics. Our estimates imply that both the 1989 and the 2001 stockholder pools would have produced higher equity holdings in 1998 than were actually observed for 1998 stockholders. This arises from differences both in optimal holdings and in financial attitudes and practices, suggesting a dilution effect of the boom followed by a cleansing effect of the downturn. Cumulative gains and losses in stockholding are shown to be significantly influenced by length of household investment horizon and portfolio breadth but, controlling for those, use of professional advice is either insignificant or counterproductive.Wealth distribution, inequality, stockholding, equity culture

Estimating Functions and Equations: An Essay on Historical Developments with Applications to Econometrics

The idea of using estimating functions goes a long way back, at least to Karl Pearson's introduction to the method of moments in 1894. It is now a very active area of research in the statistics literature. One aim of this chapter is to provide an account of the developments relating to the theory of estimating functions. Starting from the simple case of a single parameter under independence, we cover the multiparameter, presence of nuisance parameters and dependent data cases. Application of the estimating functions technique to econometrics is still at its infancy. However, we illustrate how this estimation approach could be used in a number of time series models, such as random coefficient, threshold, bilinear, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, in models of spatial and longitudinal data, and median regression analysis. The chapter is concluded with some remarks on the place of estimating functions in the history of estimation.

Sequential analysis of duration data with application to "reemployment bonus" experiments

Suitable methodology and an asymptotic theory for the sequential analysis of time-to-event (duration) data is developed and its application in "Reemployment Bonus" experiments is studied.First, a proportional hazards regression model with possibly censored observations, time-dependent covariates and staggered entry is assumed. Sequential analysis of the partial likelihood score process and other related statistics cannot rely on martingale theory. Instead a modern empirical process theory is used to deal with the underlying two-dimensional character of the problem. A very general treatment of the large sample theory with minimum technicalities is made developed.Next, sequential testing procedures for the analysis of duration data are employed to reconsider the Pennsylvania "Reemployment Bonus" Demonstration. The efficiency and flexibility gained by the monitoring of large-scale experiments is illustrated. Boundaries that preserve the overall type-I error are constructed based on the asymptotic theory developed previously. Several treatments show their efficacy earlier than the termination day dictated by the fixed-sample design. Stopping the study at that time would have achieved important pecuniary savings.Last, techniques developed earlier are applied to test statistics arising from the analysis of right-truncated data in which both the duration and calendar time are naturally involved. Asymptotic theory for the one-sample and the regression problems is established.U of I OnlyETDs are only available to UIUC Users without author permissio

Quantile regression for duration data: A reappraisal of the Pennsylvania Reemployment Bonus Experiments

We argue that quantile regression methods can play a constructive role in the analysis of duration (survival) data offering a more flexible, more complete analysis than is typically available with more conventional methods. We illustrate the approach with a reanalysis of the data from the Pennsylvania Reemployment Bonus Experiments. These experiments, conducted in 1988-89, were designed to test the efficacy of cash bonuses paid for early reemployment in shortening the length of insured unemployment spellswage differentials · quantile regression.

Equity culture and the distribution of wealth

Is wider access to stockholding opportunities related to reduced wealth inequality, given that it creates challenges for small and less sophisticated investors? Counterfactual analysis is used to study the influence of changes in the US stockholder pool and economic environment, on the distribution of stock and net household wealth during a period of dramatic increase in stock market participation. We uncover substantial shifts in stockholder pool composition, favoring smaller holdings during the 1990s upswing but larger holdings around the burst of the Internet bubble. We find no evidence that widening access to stocks was associated with reduced net wealth inequality